Round 4 - THE SWAP

[ricky]

PRE SWAP

The round before the swap was very messy for Palma while Cabrera, but really Jake, got out a huge threat without anyone batting an eye. No tribe rankings this round since they swapped. 

PALMA (also i'm colorblind so not sure if this is even blue)

This tribe was such a MESS. After Jordan was voted out we were all worried Palma's entertainment value would disappear but Jennifer heard our prayers and DELIVERED. This girl faked an idol for no reason, tried to target everyone on her tribe at one point except Duke, which honestly says a lot about Duke's game right now, told everyone about her steal a vote power, transferred her steal a vote to Sean (WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT JENNIFER???), almost voted out Sean if it hadn't been for Brian's last minute change of heart, released all her birds at once and then went bird watching again even though she had already had ALL the birds together. She was very erratic and over the top. I have no clue what her strategy is right now. She needs to pull back at the swap and reset. Maybe getting rid of her power will help her go under the radar. 

Duke stayed under the radar and was the only person whose name was not thrown out this round. He's playing a great game right now. 

Brian really has come a long way since Round 1. No one actually considered voting Brian out over Kaylee this round. The vote was always between Sean and Kaylee, and in the end it was really Brian's choice to go with Kaylee instead of Sean. That's a good spot to be in. He also got the second highest ranking this round from his tribe mates, although not enough to elevate his average ranking from last spot in his tribe, thus why he was captain at the swap. I think Brian can go far now, he's learning the game, has adjusted his game play accordingly, and has an idol. 

Sean was almost evicted and he has no idea about it. He's playing a good game and even got Jennifer to transfer him her power... not sure if we can credit his game play with this move or if it was all Jennifer, but still, he must be doing something right for Jennifer to send it his way. 

Cabrera

This round was all Jake. His alliance with April and Logan wanted Bodhi out, and he put in the work to get it done. He wanted to make sure Jenn was in on the vote so he wouldn't expose his alliance with April and Logan, and I think he did a good job. He got his 4-1 vote against Bodhi and still has Jenn thinking its them against the newbies, and has Logan and April in the palm of his hand. I'm surprised his game has not been exposed yet. It should be fun to see him maneuver through the swap. 

Logan played a bit more under the radar this round and was content letting Jake do all the work. He still got his target out and is sitting pretty with Jake. I do think he has lost some ground with April. She ranked him third behind Jake and Bodhi (who she voted out). So i'm not sure where he stands with her right now. 

Jenn is playing a very good game but I think Jake has noticed and is starting to line up the pieces to take a shot at her as soon as he can. It should be interesting to see who comes out on top... most likely Jenn. 

April was there this round, kind of. 

[devon]

I haven't been able to follow this season as closely as I've wanted to so far, but one clear theme has emerged in my eyes: the value of being a sane human being. Obviously, being a solid, dependable player like Jenn or Sean has value, but there were so many aggressive overplayers around them that I was curious to see if Jenn and Sean would become outcasts by virtue of their playstyle being so different (that is to say, not completely insane).

Didn't happen.

Jenn and Sean seem to be in solid positions now because at the end of the day, when tribal council is looming, it's hard not to gravitate towards solid, rational people who seem to have your back. And, conversely, it's only natural to want to take out a crazy player who might not have your back.

This seems like an amazing cast of relative newbies who overplay like crazy, but I remain convinced that this season will be a Jenn/Sean steamroll - until and unless someone in the game proves me wrong.

[ricky]

Most overused phrase this season: "I get good vibes from you." ... everyone spreading that around like oral herpes.

[ricky]

Thoughts Before Joint Tribal Council

Palma (the gay tribe)

Jake is raising an army for the merge. He has Logan, April, Jenn, Brian and most likely Sean. That is a majority in the merge. If he is able to put that together he'll have the upper hand on the Drago people at the merge. He was also able to get Brian to give him his idol in exchange for his extra vote. Bad trade for Brian, great trade for Jake, except he's about to waste said idol at the Joint Tribal Council. Jenn is keeping the target off of him in Cabrera. Jake is playing a great game, but I think it is going to catch up to him mid merge when his army turns on him. 

Brian seems to have found his footing in the game. Yes, he made a bad trade with Jake, but now Jake wants to go all the way with him, which is a safer bet for Brian than sticking with Jennifer. I don't think Jake will turn on him at any point and I can see Brian turning on Jake midway through the merge. I think Brian is going to be a challenge beast at the merge. 

April is a loyal ally for Jake and I'm worried she's playing his game right now. I hope she becomes more aware of Jake's game and does something to protect herself. 

Sean has done a good job of laying low at the swap, studying the dynamic of the group and only sharing that information with a few people... mainly Jake. He was the first to notice Lamont's bs effort to save the Drago people on Cabrera and quickly pitched to Jake the idea of getting rid of Lamont at the Joint Tribal Council. I don't think Sean will win this game, but he will get rid of another big player ala Jordan before the game is over.  

Jeff is back to his day one strategy of laying low and just making personal connections with people, and again he might be in trouble because of it. Both Jeff and Lamont have come up as possible targets this round for Jake and his peeps. He has also been named by Logan on Cabrera as a good target since he did so well in the word puzzle in Challenge #1. Jake can already sense that Jeff and David are close, which they are, and this makes Jake uneasy. Jeff got a bad deal with this swap, especially cause Lamont is really hurting Jeff's game right now. 

Lamont... this guy started overplaying as soon as he got to the swap and that might cost him his game or Jeff's game, too early to tell. As soon as the joint council was announced he got on a call with all of Palma and told them they could not go after a Drago b/c they most likely all had powers, so the rest of Palma would just have to come up with someone from their original tribe they wanted to get rid of. NOT A GOOD LOOK. Sean was calling his bs and already thinking of turning the tables and targeting one of the Dragos in Palma. Lamont might be a casualty tonight. 

Cabrera

David is at the top of this tribe. He has both Jennifers wanting to work with him, as well as Ashley and Amber. He also has an idol and is not a target at tonight's joint council. The merge will be the Jake group vs David's group and Jenn F will be in the middle. 

Jenn F is in trouble again. She won individual immunity and ghosted her tribe, leaves people on read, and hasn't tried making a connection with anyone in new cabrera. Everyone except David is sketched out by her. Feels like round 1 again, and she can still turn it around.

Ashley has worked hard at the swap. She created a 5 person alliance with Amber, David, Jennifer C and Duke in order to take out Logan (this was when they thought both tribes were going to tribal separately), which is impressive since Duke and Jennifer C should be working with Jenn F and Logan to take out a Drago. Unfortunately, she has become one of Palma's main targets for tonight's vote, and she has Lamont to thank for that. Lamont was gung ho about David and Amber having a power b/c of how many cages they each had at one point that Palma decided that the best target then would be Ashley. I hope David can see this plan at tribal and use his idol on her. It's too early for Ashley to go home!

Duke has been laying low this round and still does not have a target on his back and everyone keeps wanting to work with him. Duke also showed his strategic side when before getting on the 5 person alliance he told Jennifer C that it might not be the best plan for them, that if they took out Logan that would leave them at the bottom of the 5 person alliance and 3 vs 3 with Jenn F on their side and the Drago three on the other. I think he joined the 5 person alliance because he couldnt say no, but I doubt he will stick with it. 

Amber has made good connections at the swap with both Jennifers and Duke but has both David and Ashley ready to sacrifice her for their game. Unbeknownst to them, Lamont has been able to get the target off Amber and over to Ashley . 

Jennifer C has slowed down her game, mainly due to the nature of her new tribe. She keeps complaining that they are too quiet, but that is literally what is saving her game. Everyone so far likes her, except Jenn F. On the other side of the island however, Brian is already jumping ship and abandoning Jennifer for Jake.

Logan has had a hard time adjusting to the swap dynamic without Jake and April. He was on a call with Jennifer C for a while and they just danced around game talk, it was so awkward. He needs to reunite with Jake and April fast or he won't last long. 

People most at danger of going home tonight: Ashley, Jennifer C and Jeff.